I am a big fan of trading currency pairs that also give me positive swaps. Because Renko charts take longer than usual for the price objective to be met, I find it a bit comforting that when positions are kept open over a period of weeks, the overnight swaps that are collected are also positive, which helps to regain some of the commissions that are paid.
GBPAUD has been one of my favorite currency pairs that I have been closely following. You can read my very old analysis on GBPAUD here. Getting back to this pair, I notice some very interesting pullback to the down trend in GBPAUD, so let’s break down this GBPAUD analysis into more details.
The first chart below shows the GBPAUD 60pip Renko chart. Here I plot a downtrend channel and we notice that price is currently in the midst of completing its reversal. I expect GBPAUD to rally towards the region of 1.8062 – 1.8182 levels before reversing. A move above 1.8302 would invalidate this idea.
In the next chart, if we zoom out a bit, we notice a very long term massive divergence being built up. When price was at 1.6562, the RSI was way overbought at 93.21 and when price made its high at 1.8962, RSI was lower at 81.06. The bearish divergence was validated after previous key support level at 1.8122 was broken and retested for resistance.
Based on the above facts, we can now look for potential reversals near the region of 1.8062 – 1.8182, potentially placing stop loss orders at or above 1.8302 with a downside target to 1.6562.
And finally, when looking at a longer term 100Pip GBPAUD Chart, we notice some important confluence. A break of the trend line (first trend line) with a retest followed by a break of the second trend line with price action currently showing a retest to 1.8062.
Based on this assumption, price should not be heading any higher than 1.8262
GBPAUD Renko Analysis Conclusion
The above analysis is a very long term trade analysis, which at the very least could take at least a quarter, if not more for the objective to be realized. However, given that GBPAUD shorts for the moment offers a positive overnight swaps, this could be one of those traders that could simply be set and forgotten.